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Are we in a recession? Depends on who you ask.

Are we in a recession? Depends on who you ask.

| August 11, 2022
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That's pretty confusing, right?

Let's discuss.

The most common definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.1

The economy met that bar after the most recent report on Gross Domestic Product, which showed that the economy shrank in the first half of 2022.

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...isn't it a recession?

Not so fast.

We won't know whether we're actually in a recession for several more months.

Why?

Well, the official arbiter of recessions is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and their recession criteria depend on a lot more data than just GDP.1

To formally declare a recession, the NBER looks for a significant and widespread decline in economic activity that goes on for a while.

We may very well be in a recession. However, a mixed bag of positive and negative economic factors makes it weird and hazy.

  • On the positive side: the labor market remains strong, still creating plenty of new jobs. Consumer and business investment is also still looking sturdy.1
  • On the negative side: inflation is obviously on everyone's radar, as is the Fed's latest interest rate hike.2

So, does it ACTUALLY matter whether we’re “officially” in a recession or not?

That also depends on who you ask. There’s definitely symbolic value in knowing that we’re in a recession.

Policymaking economists are pretty wary of prematurely announcing one. The possible result of panicked markets, businesses, and consumers could make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

A number of Wall Street economists think that we may not be in a recession right now; however, many have sounded the alarm that a downturn may be on the horizon.3

Bottom line: The reality of what we’re experiencing is more important than official recession calls and it's definitely not looking rosy.

What does all this mean for me?

Whether we're officially in a recession or not, the economy is flashing some undeniable warning signs.

Despite recent gains, we can definitely expect more market volatility and selling pressure.

Right now, the best we can do is stick to the strategy, take advantage of the opportunities we see, and mentally prepare for a rocky road ahead.

I’ll be continuing to keep watch, analyze the forecasts (hazy as they are), and update you as needed.

Vigilantly,

David


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1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/the-economy-may-look-like-its-in-recession-but-we-still-dont-know-for-sure.html

2 - https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/fed-raises-interest-rates-75-basis-points-another-historic-move-tackle-inflation

3 - https://fortune.com/2022/07/19/aneta-markowska-jefferies-fake-recession-wall-street-chief-economist-2022/

Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.

Securities and advisory services are offered through Cetera Advisors LLC member FINRA/SIPC, a broker/dealer and a registered investment adviser. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other entity. Treece Financial Group is not affiliated with Cetera Advisors LLC.

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